Is Turkiye Becoming Israel’s Next Target in the Middle East?
Istanbul – Growing unease is gripping Ankara as Israel expands its military footprint across the Middle East. After recent strikes on Qatar, a key U.S. ally, Israeli commentators and analysts began openly suggesting that Turkiye could be Tel Aviv’s next strategic target.
On social media, Israeli political voices framed the escalation with a provocative message: “Today Qatar, tomorrow Turkey.” In response, Ankara issued unusually harsh statements, denouncing Israeli ambitions and warning against further destabilisation of the region.
Rising Hostility and Rhetoric
For months, pro-Israel media have described Turkiye as “Israel’s most dangerous enemy.” Israeli analysts argue that Ankara’s influence in the Eastern Mediterranean and its support for rebuilding Syria challenge Israel’s long-term regional agenda.
In August, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan announced the suspension of all economic and trade ties with Israel, framing Tel Aviv’s actions as unchecked aggression backed by Washington. Analysts in Ankara argue that Israel’s willingness to strike a close U.S. partner such as Qatar raises doubts about whether NATO or the U.S. would intervene to defend Turkiye in the event of a confrontation.
“Turkiye increasingly feels that Israeli aggression knows no limits and enjoys American protection,” said Omer Ozkizilcik, a fellow at the Atlantic Council.
Competing Regional Visions
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has openly embraced the concept of a “Greater Israel,” a vision some hardline Zionists link to territories in Syria, Lebanon, Egypt and Jordan. Ankara interprets this rhetoric as a direct threat to regional sovereignty.
Turkish officials warn that Israel’s policies aim to keep neighbouring states weak and fragmented. This clashes with Turkiye’s preference for strong, centralised governments, particularly in Syria. Ankara continues to support Damascus’s efforts to maintain a unitary state, while Israel has repeatedly argued for a federal model with separate autonomies.
The rivalry is already visible in Syria, where Israel has targeted potential Turkish bases in Homs and Hama. Retired Turkish admiral Cem Gurdeniz warns that friction will likely intensify on the Syrian front, both on land and in the air. He also highlights Israel’s growing military cooperation with Greece and Cyprus as part of what Ankara views as an “encirclement strategy” in the Eastern Mediterranean.
A Broader Power Struggle
Israel’s actions in Syria, Lebanon, Iran and now Qatar demonstrate what Ankara perceives as a push for regional hegemony. Israeli forces have bombed Syria repeatedly, carried out strikes on Iran, and remain engaged in Gaza and the West Bank.
For Turkiye, the implications are clear. Any Israeli attempt to undermine Ankara’s influence in Syria or the Mediterranean would cross a red line. “If Tel Aviv persists, a conflict between Ankara and Tel Aviv will become inevitable,” said Murat Yesiltas of the SETA think tank in Ankara.
Avoiding Escalation
Despite the growing tension, experts caution that outright war is not the most likely outcome. Economic interdependence between the two nations, as well as Turkiye’s search for regional partnerships with Qatar, Jordan and Iraq, could provide off-ramps.
Andreas Krieg of King’s College London argues that the real risk lies in the “grey zone” of covert operations, air strikes and proxy wars rather than open conflict. For Turkiye, the priority will be to strengthen air defence and intelligence capacities while keeping diplomatic channels with Washington open to avoid strategic isolation.
Outlook
As Israel’s ambitions expand and its alliances deepen, Turkiye is positioning itself as a counterweight in a volatile Middle East. Whether the rivalry escalates into direct confrontation will depend on how far Tel Aviv pushes its agenda – and how effectively Ankara can build deterrence with regional allies.