Vietnam Ends Two-Child Policy as Birthrate Falls to Historic Low
June 4 , 2025
In a dramatic shift aimed at addressing its rapidly declining birthrate, Vietnam has officially scrapped its long-standing two-child policy, allowing couples to freely decide how many children they wish to have. The move comes amid growing concerns that the country’s aging population could undermine future economic growth, strain labor markets, and burden social welfare systems.
According to state-run media, the government has revoked all directives limiting family size and birth spacing. This decision marks a significant departure from the population control strategies that have shaped Vietnamese society for decades.
A Policy Rooted in History
Vietnam's two-child policy has its origins in the 1960s in North Vietnam and was institutionalized further after reunification in the late 20th century. The country's first family planning decree was enacted in 1988, reinforcing the ideal of small families as a path toward development and modernization. While not strictly enforced nationwide, Communist Party members were often held accountable for violations, facing career-related sanctions.
Over the years, the policy evolved, with some loosening in 2003, only to be reinstated in 2008. Now, in 2025, it has been officially abolished as Vietnam enters a demographic turning point.
Fertility in Free Fall
The urgency of this policy reversal is rooted in hard numbers. Vietnam's national fertility rate dropped to 1.91 children per woman in 2024, well below the replacement level of 2.1. This represents a consistent decline from 2.11 in 2021, 2.01 in 2022, and 1.96 in 2023. If this trajectory continues, Vietnam risks entering a demographic crisis similar to those faced by neighbors like Japan, Thailand, and Singapore.
In Ho Chi Minh City, the country's economic hub, the situation is even more acute. The fertility rate there plunged to 1.32 children per woman in 2023, a trend attributed largely to high living costs, urban stress, and evolving social norms.
Incentives to Reignite Births
To combat this demographic downturn, local governments have begun rolling out incentive programs designed to encourage larger families. These include monetary rewards, certificates of merit, and subsidies for women who have two children before the age of 35. In provinces such as Tien Giang, communes with over 60% of couples having two children for three consecutive years receive bonuses of up to 30 million dong (approximately $1,180). However, early reports suggest these incentives are having limited impact on reversing the downward trend.
Economic and Social Implications
Demographers warn that Vietnam’s shrinking working-age population may jeopardize its ambitions of becoming a high-income economy by the mid-21st century. An aging population could lead to chronic labor shortages, increased healthcare costs, and pressure on pension systems—threatening the long-term sustainability of the country’s economic growth model.
Gender Imbalance Persists
In addition to the fertility crisis, Vietnam continues to grapple with a skewed sex ratio at birth, currently at 112 boys for every 100 girls, fueled by cultural preferences and illegal gender-selective abortions. In response, the Ministry of Health recently proposed tripling the fine for prenatal gender selection to $3,800, in an effort to curb the practice.
This development mirrors trends in other parts of Asia. China, which ended its infamous one-child policy in 2016 and now allows three children per couple, saw its population shrink for the third consecutive year in 2024. Meanwhile, Japan just reported its lowest birth count on record, falling below 700,000 births for the first time.
A Defining Moment for Vietnam
Vietnam's decision to abandon its two-child policy represents more than just a demographic pivot—it is a recognition of the profound social and economic challenges the country faces. As authorities shift their focus from limiting population growth to promoting family expansion, the real question is whether these measures can effectively reverse a trend that has already taken root across much of East and Southeast Asia.
If Vietnam cannot convince its younger generations to have more children, the consequences may shape the country's future for decades to come.