Trump’s Ceasefire Gamble: Fragile Calm Between Israel and Iran Raises Global Stakes
June 24, 2025
After nearly two weeks of unprecedented military confrontation between Israel and Iran, a U.S.-brokered ceasefire has taken hold—albeit shakily—under immense diplomatic pressure from President Donald Trump. The truce, announced early Tuesday, marks a potential turning point in a crisis that threatened to spiral into full-scale war, destabilize the Gulf region, and rattle global energy markets.
A Ceasefire on the Brink
The ceasefire, which officially began at 0500 GMT on Tuesday, has so far managed to stop the immediate escalation, but early violations have cast doubt over its durability. Both Israel and Iran accused one another of breaching the truce within hours of its commencement. Trump, who had played a central role in negotiating the ceasefire, voiced public frustration—particularly toward Israel, a close U.S. ally.
“I’ve got to get Israel to calm down now,” Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One, en route to the NATO summit in the Netherlands. “They’ve been fighting so long and so hard they don’t know what the hell they’re doing.”
Sources confirmed that Israel launched a strike on a radar installation north of Tehran just hours after the ceasefire was set to begin. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office later acknowledged the attack, claiming it was a response to Iranian missiles launched after the ceasefire deadline.
However, Iranian officials denied initiating any hostilities and accused Israel of continuing air raids beyond the truce’s start. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian later stated that Tehran would uphold the ceasefire as long as Israel did the same and even expressed a willingness to engage diplomatically with the U.S.
Public Reaction: Relief and Ruins
Despite the uneasy start, the ceasefire has brought a sense of cautious optimism. In both countries, citizens expressed relief that hostilities may be winding down.
“We’re happy, very happy,” said Reza Sharifi, a resident returning to Tehran after relocating his family to escape airstrikes. “Who mediated or how it happened doesn’t matter. The war is over. It never should have started.”
But for many, the damage is irreversible. In Tel Aviv, software engineer Arik Daimant said his family home had been destroyed. “It’s too late for us. But maybe this ceasefire is a new beginning.”
During the 12-day conflict, hundreds of people were reported killed in Iran, including civilians and top military officials. In Israel, 28 people died—among them an off-duty soldier—following an unprecedented wave of Iranian missile strikes that breached the Iron Dome defense system.
Trump’s Strategic Pivot
President Trump’s involvement has been both bold and controversial. Just two days before the ceasefire, he authorized U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities using bunker-busting bombs. While these strikes intensified the crisis, they also reportedly pushed both sides toward negotiations.
In a Truth Social post, Trump warned Israel: “Do not drop those bombs. If you do, it is a major violation. Bring your pilots home now!”
Later, he declared: “All planes will turn around and head home, while doing a friendly 'Plane Wave' to Iran. Nobody will be hurt, the Ceasefire is in effect!”
White House insiders said that Trump’s phone call with Netanyahu was “firm and direct,” leading to Israel halting further planned airstrikes. Behind the scenes, Qatar’s Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani reportedly helped secure Iran’s consent for the ceasefire.
Return to Normalcy — With Caveats
As of Tuesday evening, Israel lifted nationwide restrictions. The Home Front Command authorized full resumption of civil activities—schools, workplaces, and public gatherings. Airports in Ben Gurion and Haifa have resumed full operations, with all limitations on flight traffic lifted.
However, in towns near the Gaza border, restrictions on gatherings remain, capping attendance at 2,000 people.
Economic Impact and Political Stakes
Global markets responded swiftly to the ceasefire. Oil prices dropped sharply and stock markets rallied, reflecting relief that critical Gulf oil supply chains might remain unaffected.
Despite that, analysts remain cautious. Israeli military chief Eyal Zamir warned that while a chapter had closed, “the campaign against Iran is not over.” The Israeli army is now refocusing its operations on Hamas in Gaza.
For Trump, the ceasefire comes amid widespread domestic criticism of his recent military decisions. A CNN poll conducted by SSRS revealed that the majority of Americans disapprove of his decision to involve U.S. forces in the Iran conflict.
Still, Trump made clear he has no interest in toppling Iran’s government.
“Regime change causes chaos. We don’t want chaos,” he said, reiterating, “Iran is not going to have a nuclear weapon. That’s the last thing on their mind right now.”
The U.S.-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Iran has momentarily halted the worst military clash the two nations have ever experienced. But the road ahead remains perilous, fraught with political tension, regional instability, and deep mistrust. As the world watches, one question remains: Can this fragile peace hold?